Novelty audit · NOV-H3
H3 · Uncertainty-aware calibration from public raw data
Novelty hypothesis
- Status
- HYPOTHESISPossible contribution; must survive the listed conflicts and outside review.unverified hypothesis; requires outside review
- Game
- D1
- Anchor
- —
- Source file
- research/NOVELTY_HYPOTHESES.md#2
Statement
Estimate (e, l, p_m) intervals from the Zenodo timetags with time-blocked holdouts and drift stress. Propagate them in the worst-case direction into the D1 bound. P05 already does confidence propagation for S-tokens, so the possible increment is only (a) for the D1 protocol, (b) from *public raw* data, (c) with holdout validation.
Record
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